Titel
Management of uncertsinty in the safety - evaluation of individual risk
Abstract
Risk models used to evaluate whether a transport
activity operates at a tolerable safety level or not often
contain uncertain elements. An uncertain element could be the
values of model parameters which are estimated on the basis of
limited accident data. In order to make a more balanced safety
evaluation, uncertain elements in the used risk model ought to be
taken into account. This paper address how uncertainty in the
accident frequency and accident outcome can be accounted for in
the evaluation of individual risk posed by a public transport
activity. The accident outcome is in the paper represented by the
mean number of fatalities per fatal accident. The uncertainty in
the parameters are represented by Bayesian probability
distributions. It is analysed how uncertainty in the fatal
accident frequency and the mean number of fatalities may affect
the decision whether the individual risk posed by the transport
activity is tolerable or not.
Forfatter
Pierre E. Aagaard, Carl Bro AS
Session
trafiksikkerhed
År
1997